SRNL Weather Center Fire Forecast (PM)
Date:
August 15, 2025
Forecast Period:
8:00 PM Today (August 15, 2025) through 8:00 AM Three Days from Now (August 19, 2025)
Discussion:
Warming weather continues with a chance for local convection to develop becoming less significant by the end of the weekend as a high pressure builds into the area. An eye on the tropics shows Hurricane Erin moving west in the Atlantic towards the Antilles. While too early to determine if a direct impact to the US eastern coast will occur, ATG closely monitors this system. Any potential impacts to the coast (if any) would be expected late in the next week and into the next weekend.
Special Conditions:
Nighttime inversion expected tonight accompanied by areas of fog overnight and near dawn.
Likely warmer than normal temperatures in the one week to one month outlook. Precipitation in the 10 day outlook has a chance to be above normal but will likely be in the normal range which extends to the one month outlook. Above normal temperatures and precipitation are predicted for the three month outlook.
Short Term Forecast
(** Scroll table to see more information **)
(** Scroll table to see more information **)
| Tonight (August 15) | Saturday (August 16) | Saturday Night | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Condition | Partly Cloudy | Mostly Sunny | Mostly Cloudy then Partly Cloudy |
| Max/Min Temp | 75 | 92 | 72 |
| 1st Period Wind Direction/Speed | Light and variable | NE 1-3, gusts to 6 | NE 1-3, gusts to 6 |
| 2nd Period Wind Direction/Speed | light and variable | NE 3-5, gusts to 10 | NE 1-3, gusts to 6 |
| Humidity % (min/max) | 100 | 55 | 100 |
| Stability | F | A | E |
| Mixing Height (ft) | Inversion 2am to 7 am | 6500 | 700 |
| Transport Direction/Speed (mph) | N/A | NE 10 | ENE 5 |
| Precipitation Chance (%) | 40 | 30 | 0 |
| Precipitation Start-Stop | 5pm - 2 am | After 5 pm | before 1am |
| Precipitation Type | Chance of Isolated showers and thunderstorms | Isolated showers and thunderstorms | Isolated showers and thunderstorms |
| Precipitation Amount | 0.10-0.25 | 0.10-0.25 | <0.10 |
| Fog Potential | Patchy fog likely | None expected | Patchy fog likely after 3am |
Extended Forecast for August 17 - 19
| Sunday (August 17) | Monday (August 18) | Tuesday (August 19) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| State of the Weather | Sunny | Sunny | Sunny |
| Maximum Temp (F) | 89 | 91 | 90 |
| Minimum Temp (F) | 73 | 73 | 74 |
| Surface Wind Direction/Speed (MPH) | NE 3-5, guts to 10 | NE 3-5, guts to 10 | NE 4-6, gusts to 12 |
| Humidity | High | High | High |
| Dispersion Potential | Good | Good | Good |
| PrecipitationChance | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Precipitation Type | Chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. | None | None |
SN / Atmospheric Technology Group
Phone: 5-4831
Pager: 16277
Weather Center Phone: 5-1182